Israel preps for war, should we?

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran added another distressing chapter to the saga Aug. 20. An article from the USA Today speculated about the war preparations Israel is currently undergoing, saying that “after months of saber rattling, the Israeli government is opening gas mask distribution centers, and on Sunday it tested an early warning system that involved texting hundreds of thousands of Israelis. Both steps are in preparation for a potential retaliatory Iranian missile strike.”

Tensions between the two countries have escalated in recent years due to Iran’s secretive nuclear program.

“[Iran’s] frequent calls for the destruction of Israel raise particular concerns in this regard,” Joseph Payne and Keith Payne said in a joint article for the National Review.

A fierce animosity exists between the two countries, but are the actions taken in preparation for a worst-case scenario, or a sign of an upcoming conflict?

Any pre-emptive strike by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities would be pointless if Israel is not able to disrupt a significant amount of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
According to the weekly political newspaper The Economist, a successful strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would only “delay Iran” and would not stop it from eventually acquiring nuclear weapons.

Iran’s Fordow nuclear plant was also described as a “supposedly impregnable facility that is buried deep in a mountain complex surrounded by anti-aircraft batteries,” which Israel would not be able to destroy by itself.

President Obama has made his position clear to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he is against an attack on Iran. If Israel does not have direct support from the U.S. for a pre-emptive strike, it is doubtful that they will be able to carry out an attack that would have any lasting effect on Iran’s nuclear program.

Any such attack would result in retaliation from Iran. In the Washington Post, Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, Israel’s military intelligence director, said that over 200,000 missiles could end up striking Israel if they started a war with Iran. Many of these would target heavily-populated areas such as Tel Aviv.

Given the constant tension in the Middle East, Israel’s war preparations are not surprising.

Israel has reason to be concerned about Iran, but it is unlikely that they will carry out any pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Because of their inability to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities and their own, any attack by Israel would prove unsuccessful.

U.S. support would be necessary for an effective attack on Iran, but President Obama has been clear in his opposition to any pre-emptive strike. Israel is left in a situation where the minimal benefits of attacking Iran do not outweigh the costs and risks associated with that strategy. Barring a full-out war resulting in the demise of the Iranian regime, a nuclear-armed Iran is an inevitable future that the U.S. will need to learn how to deal with.