With the NFL Draft just a week away, fans and players alike are anxious to see who goes where. As of now, there’s still speculation of what will happen with the first pick, much less the next few that follow. The “experts” who cover the Draft every year seemingly know all the answers, but where is the line between the truth and the storyline?
This year boasts an elite crop of talent among defensive linemen, corners and edge rushers, and the consensus among most analysts is that there will be a healthy amount of each taken in the first round. The media has also been hyping up this year’s wide receiver class, but rumor has it that NFL teams have not bought into the hype.
Jim Nagy, who is the director of the annual Senior Bowl, made the following report in a tweet on April 10: “One thing has become clear on calls around league (the) past couple weeks: NFL isn’t nearly as high on this year’s WR class as media. Frequently seeing 4-5 wideouts in mocks. Have spoken to numerous teams that have only one first round grade at the position. That guy is (Jaxon Smith-Njigba).”
Smith-Njigba, an Ohio State prospect, is likely given this grade because he arguably possesses the best blend of physical tools and talent in this class. He’s just over 6 feet tall and around 200 pounds, with great hands and evident toughness.
Some of the names that have been tossed into the first-round conversation are Zay Flowers from Boston College, TCU’s Quentin Johnston and USC’s Jordan Addison. These players might not be as highly touted by the league because of weaknesses that would not warrant their selection in the first round.
Flowers, for instance, has a smaller stature and struggles with dropping passes. Johnston has the desired height and weight of an NFL receiver but struggles to win contested catches and find the end zone. Addison has issues with consistency and had a cold second half of the season.
With rookie receivers come inescapable issues, and many teams would rather take a chance on a veteran. The Baltimore Ravens, for instance, were believed to be a team that might draft a receiver. This may no longer be the case, as they just signed free-agent Odell Beckham Jr. to a one-year contract.
Other teams simply have bigger needs to address in the draft. The Chicago Bears are a team that had few good offensive weapons going into free agency, but they acquired DJ Moore and a handful of picks in their deal to trade out of the first overall pick. They could very well select a receiver with a later pick (of which they have several), but there are heavy concerns on the defense that still need to be addressed.
The Arizona Cardinals are in the same boat as the Bears. They have needs across the board apart from quarterback. Based on their draft position at third overall, they’ll likely grab a top talent if they don’t trade back with a team in need of a new signal caller.
Finally, teams might not select receivers because of the eventual pressure to dish out a big contract and overpay them. Jaguars’ receiver Christian Kirk, who is very average if not slightly above, broke the receiver market in 2021 with a deal worth over $72 million over three years. This led to bigger names like Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill receiving mega deals worth double the money.
The NFL is a business first, so lots of teams would rather sign cheaper veterans to lower deals than have to eventually break the bank for a player solely based on their draft position. The Jets are a prime example, having signed Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman to value deals.
With the number of talented players in the league increasing every year, young receivers are starting to be treated like running backs. They are falling out of the first round because of their position and the money they’ll eventually have to make.
As usual, the analysts and the teams live in two different worlds: one in which there will be another big group of first round picks spent on receivers, and the other where more than one would be a shock. The answer to which world will become reality will be answered on April 27.
Wheeler is a sports reporter for the Liberty Champion. Follow him on Twitter