Voters prepare for Senate and House elections

The upcoming midterm elections Nov. 8 will determine which party controls the reins of government for the next two years, with 435 House of Representatives elections, 35 senatorial and 36 gubernatorial seats spread nationwide. Voters will head to the polls with key issues such as inflation, crime, immigration and abortion on their minds.

With slim majorities in both houses of Congress and over control of the presidency, Democrats are forced to battle the historical trend where the party in power has an electoral disadvantage. Because of how small the Democratic majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate are, every competitive race could decide which party is in control of each chamber for the next two years.

“We are in a bunch of close races,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said. “It’s going to be really, really close either way, in my view.”

During the summer, the national environment for Democrats looked more hopeful as gas prices dropped, inflation cooled, Roe v. Wade was overturned and President Joe Biden signed several prominent pieces of legislation into law. However, as gas prices begin to rise again and with inflation recorded at a 40-year high of 8.2% in the month of September, Democrats have seen their leads in races tighten with Republicans gaining some momentum. 

“While I think a lot of Democrats are feeling better as they should, there’s a long way to go here,” Biden’s former press secretary, Jen Psaki, said on MSNBC Sept. 14. “If the election were tomorrow, I think the House would be a big uphill battle. That would be a bit of a leap. The Senate, more of a toss-up. But there are different dynamics that we should pay close attention
to too.”

The battle for the United States Senate, currently split 50-50 with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking vote, features several close races where every seat will count. Cook Political Report has assigned four races “toss-up” status, meaning either party could win: Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Florida, North Carolina and Ohio are considered “lean Republican,” and Arizona, Colorado and New Hampshire are “lean Democrat” — “lean” meaning “considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage,” as Cook describes.

Former University of Georgia and NFL running back Herschel Walker is looking to unseat incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Republicans are looking to flip Nevada’s Democratic seat with former Attorney General Adam Laxalt running against incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in a coin flip out West.

Pennsylvania, an open seat with the retiring of incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, features a high-profile race between Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz, which Democrats view as a hopeful pickup. Wisconsin sees incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson vying for a third term in the Senate against Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, likely the least competitive of the Cook “toss-up” senatorial elections in favor of Johnson, according to FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight, using polling, fundraising, historical trends and expert opinions, calculates that Democrats currently have a 55% chance of retaining control of the Senate in the midterm elections.

While the Senate has taken up much of the spotlight due to its coin flip nature, the House of Representatives has remained steadier as a Republican flip is likely. FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans an 81% chance to retake the House, which is more liable to swing from quick electoral shifts. Of FiveThirtyEight’s 50 most competitive House races, 38 are seats currently held by Democrats. Cook forecasts 31 “toss-up” House seats, while FiveThirtyEight predicts 13 “toss-up” elections, explaining that neither party has more than a 60% chance of winning.

House Republicans are campaigning to retake the chamber with their Commitment to America agenda, focusing on the economy, safety, freedom and government accountability as their four pillars. Recently, Biden pledged that Democrats would codify Roe v. Wade into law as the first bill in the new Congress if they maintain their majority in both houses of Congress.

Nov. 8 will see both parties anxiously watching the voting results come in for this close election.

For more information on these elections, visit here.

Browder is the opinion editor.