Rubio surges in Iowa

Florida senator’s third place finish may have been a win for him in the long term

Sen. Marco Rubio climbed on stage to flashing cameras and a roaring crowd Monday, Feb. 1. Just minutes before, the final totals for the voting in the Republican Iowa caucus had been received.

“This is the moment they said would never happen,” Rubio said as his supporters cheered. “For months they told us we had no chance.”

iowa — Sen. Marco Rubio gained momentum going into the very important New Hampshire primary. Google Images

Iowa — Sen. Marco Rubio gained momentum going into the very important New Hampshire primary. Google Images

If you had just turned on your TV at that moment, you would have thought Rubio and his campaign had won the Iowa caucus. Instead, he had finished third behind Sen. Ted Cruz and businessman Donald Trump. Yet this may very well have been a win for the Rubio campaign.

Leading up to the caucus, the famous Des Moines Register poll had Rubio polling at 15 percent, eight points behind Cruz and 13 points behind Trump. This was a good position for him to be in, as he did not totally fit the electorate, and many pundits predicted a small rise into the high teens on voting day.

Instead of the small rise many anticipated, Rubio surged on election night, finishing a few thousand votes shy of stealing second place from the tanking Trump. The eventual winner, Cruz, finished a mere four points ahead of the Florida senator.

This finish, while surprising many in the media, fell directly in step with the vision the Rubio campaign had all along for the Republican primary. In an article in the National Review a few weeks before the Iowa caucus, Tim Alberta detailed the “3-2-1” path the Rubio campaign was envisioning for the first three primaries of the nomination process. They hoped for a solid third place finish in Iowa, a second place finish in New Hampshire that would clear out the rest of the “establishment” lane, and a first place finish in South Carolina.

“From there, Rubio would be well-positioned in the long haul to win a plurality of voters, and ultimately a majority of delegates, in a three-way contest against Donald Trump and Ted Cruz,” Alberta wrote.

This strategy may seem counterintuitive to many. However, it fits perfectly with the Republican primary process. The dirty little secret many may not know about the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary is that they are of little significance beyond the momentum a candidate can get from winning them and dominating the news cycle.

Both these states have a small amount of delegates that candidates can win, so they have a relatively small impact on the greater nomination process. Also, these states distribute their delegates using a proportional system, where candidates win the percentage of delegates that matches the percentage votes they won in the primary.

Instead, the calendar for the GOP primary is back loaded with delegate-heavy states, such as Florida and Ohio. These states also specifically favor an establishment or more conventional candidate.
“The GOP calendar is front-loaded with insurgent-friendly states,” David Wasserman of fivethirtyeight.com wrote. “Rubio can’t afford to get clobbered early by missing thresholds in SEC states, he merely needs to stay within striking distance.”

This is why the results in Iowa were such a win for Rubio. He is more than just a “striking distance” away from Cruz and Trump but is directly at their heels and could very well finish ahead of Cruz in New Hampshire. And Rubio’s chances to win South Carolina continue to get higher, as he has picked up endorsements from South Carolina Congressmen Trey Gowdy and Tim Scott.

“When I put together a strong position on national defense and foreign policy, coupled with a compassionate attachment for people to alleviate poverty using conservative principles exclusively, Marco Rubio became the only candidate that I honestly believe can do both,” Scott said.

Rubio’s path to be the Republican nominee is growing stronger, and with a good showing in the New Hampshire primary he could eliminate his main competition, Gov. John Kasich, Gov. Jeb Bush, and Gov. Chris Christie.

Sutherland is the opinion editor.

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